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Wednesday, 11 February 2009

FTTH & Sustainability - in bed with the telcos

Dr Marcus Wheldon, Alcatel Lucent

Begs to differ at some of the things Bill has said eg triple play models are working and of course he is not keen to suddenly bring the utility companies as well into the telco game so doesn't like that aspect of Bill's presentation.

his talk will be on
*anticipate and plan to deploy Fibre to the most economical point
*deploy efficiently in an eco-sustainable fasion
*manage the technology cycle

bandwidth growth is inevitable and has been fairly constant since the early days. Clearly shows that for both early and late adopteres 100Mbps imperative middle of next decade - well that puts the new USO in its place!! Similar graph to one I keep meaning to post. in 5-6 years, we will see a 6-8x increase. As I have now seen this graph or very similar ones many times, this really must be brought to the attention of Carter et al. (And MrT who won't admit that anyone will ever need this much!) Yes, we need quality but it must also be sufficient for reasonable use.

Video has been one of the big drivers. Thinks triple play and internet tv and IPTV will become part of that paradigm and he believes triple play will work.

Video has been the driver for the need for speed and bandwidth.

TV - standard TV sees decline over time in need for bandwidth because encoding and codecs get better. HDTV and 3DTV (available in the Alcatel Lucent booth) are driving new techs (panaromic tv ultra hd or super hdtv - whooosh, these look fun!!!) and that takes us into the needing of more and more and more bandwidth. Codecs will not save us from the need for bandwidth as these new techs appear.

Interesting graphcs shwoing how TV of differing types uses bandwidth etc.

Peak and average graphics. Increase in both due to personalisatiopn and interaction, as well as broadcast paradigms.

Looks at different deployments of broadband techs. Points out FTTN in highly competitive markets. easy and cheap to install and win market share.

13.6% of global population on fttx networks. Congratulate ourselves? I think not, pal!!

Looks at civils costs etc - too fast moving and too many graphs to blog easily, but interwsting to note that there is only 15% difference between mdus and individual dwellings deploy costs so the arguments about Korea etc are naff. That is not why they have been able to afford it and we haven't got off our butts at all.

LA thinks: Network operators are making all deploy decisions on economic basis eg to which point can I lay fibre most economically? Rather than there being proper decisions made on national and regional levels about where the most economic point for the users and country/region should be. We are letting the telcos run the game.

ICT was 2% of green house emissions, equivalent to aviation fuel consumption not aviation industry

in 2020, potentially 4% of ICT ghg will be fixed broadband whilst mobile is 13% which is very worrying if the USO insists on us using the most hefty green house gas contributor eg mobile broadband to cover the digital divide.

smart buildings etc. smart metering can bring 27% savings on smart grid and 21% on smart buildings which is about half of 7,8gtonnes of CO2, as well as all the video conferening etc. Go back to Bill's talk about rewarding consumers. You can save 5times the carbon footprint from building the network. (Now that an interesting figure - what if ROI is all about carbon not ££s or $$$?????).

Looks at energy usage of cpe....

active equipment. VDSL eg that used in fttN is way more energy intensive than it should be, ADSL even worse. cpe production and cpe power are the two big places for energy consumption in FTTH but EU have introduced many guideliens et on how to reduce these and this is having positive effect. IEEE also working on standards that have modems etc powering down during inactivity.

gpon far lower than adsl and vdsl less than 1w per user cpe.

From my pov, these speakers have both made the case for FTTH but in very different ways. If we must reduce CO2 to the levels Bill stated to save the planet then continuing to use ADSL is utterly inexcusable.

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