Is there really next gen market failure?

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Read more! This bothers not just me, but others too, judging by recent conversations. Before we dish out large lumps of money to telcos/ISPs/corporates etc to deliver into the places precisely those people are saying they will not go, what proof is there of market failure? Only their word. But are they lying?

We have been here before. BT claimed in the first wave of broadband that large swathes of the country were not deemed to be viable for exchange enablement. That was proven, in no uncertain terms, to be untrue. Firstly, the claim was that most of those exchanges were rural and therefore insufficient demand was cited, yet the truth is that demand is now proven to be higher in rural areas. Secondly, when BT's bluff was called in Yorkshire and public money was provided to enable the final 20+ exchanges (and upgrade the middle mile to fibre for future-proofing) on the proviso that it was repaid if the unviable argument was disproven, BT ended up repaying a substantial proportion of the monies (I was told a six zero figure). Thirdly, the profits from ADSL broadband are undeniable. If it wasn't making money, we wouldn't have broadband on offer for £6.99/month etc. It isn't a loss leader, it's profitable.

I was made privy to many FTTH financing figures in the U.S. (actual not hypothetical). The non-viable nature of FTTH was nowhere in sight based on an ARPU lower than that which consumers are currently paying for inferior services.

So, is there market failure for FTTH? Or next gen? (whatever that currently means as the UK govt is ignorantly calling a USO of 2Mbps 'superfast').

I think there is no proof WHATSOEVER that there is or will be market failure for FTTH. However, before someone decides to spend the broadband fund on some other needy cause (of which this country has many), let's just ponder one thing.

Define market failure. If market failure means that the telcos deem that they will make insufficient profit in an area, does that mean that a community project, run as a sustainable commercial concern, can also not make money? Surely, the whole point is that whilst there are slimmer margins available in certain areas, a community project can tread that finer line and still deliver a sustainable (read: profitable) network where a telco cannot or will not because of shareholder interest, higher costs etc.

What we require in the UK are networks which offer best value, especially bearing in mind that a true 'community' network will connect ever single sector in that community, including those who use public funds to pay for their communications eg hospitals, schools, councils, etc etc, thereby passing the savings to the taxpayer (and Treasury).

In order to give best value and foster competition and innovation, these networks need to be:
a) open access - allowing competition to offer a wide variety of CHOICE to the end users, whoever they are, public, private, consumer, health, councils etc
b) community-owned and run - creating local jobs and optimising the blue pound principle not paying out to increasingly foreign-owned businesses or those whoa re investing more outside the UK than within
c) run on a sustainable commercial level to ensure that these networks, which will have a lifespan of at least 50 years, are still sustainable when our next generation takes over running them

However, a community project will struggle to self-fund something which needs to pay back over, for instance, 20 years. Many people do not stay resident in a community now for anywhere near that long in this transitory, socially mobile age. Businesses struggle to see long-term futures now we have lost manufacturing, farming is battling to stay afloat, and so on. Finding internal investment will be difficult.

Yet, it is precisely those projects which will deliver the aims and objectives of Digital Britain and which need to be funded. The so-called Final Third should be the first third to be funded, and the funding should go into recreating what we have managed before so efficiently and effectively - local and regional infrastructure projects, owned and run by those whose direct interest is affected - the community. We did it with water, power, railways - successfully, until we decided in a moment or three of glory to nationalise them.

Market failure? Think again.







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Marketing FTTH to the end user - that's you!

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Read more! Recently, I received a personal response from Vivien Reding to my letter about the need to market FTTH honestly and accurately in the coming months and years. It seems that there will now be a working group set up to discuss precisely this issue in Brussels because we are already seeing misleading of the public, MPs, media etc by the telcos/ISPs. This is creating confusion amongst not just consumers, before the UK and others in the EU have even got going with next generation broadband. It needs to be stopped.

And before you switch off and think this does not apply to you, remember one thing: we are ALL consumers. Whatever your day job, hobby, involvement in FTTH or NGA, you too are an end user.

Before and during my trip to the US, we discussed the need for shared resources about marketing fibre (amongst many other aspects of FTTH!). This is now an ongoing project, which I hope that many will get involved in. Selling FTTH and true broadband connectivity is a universal issue with solutions which may only require small tweaks to meet market conditions and consumer needs in different countries.

However, working out how to best apply best practice and lessons learnt to your network, community, region or country can be difficult if you can't discover what others have found out. And found out the hard way, judging by some of the tales I have heard over the past few months!

Travelling around the world and visiting all the networks to discover first hand is of course bordering on impossible (though I am very tempted, and willing to try if anyone wishes to sponsor me!). This is, of course, where the internet comes in, putting us all in touch with other like-minded souls in the first instance. However, I have to say that meeting people in the flesh, so to speak, is unbeatable and once again want to thank everyone across the States who showed me such unbelievable hospitality.

I digress...Interestingly, many of the talks in the US revolved around the lessons learnt by pioneers and how to share this knowledge. Not just in and from the US but across the planet. And the importance of co-operation by all to work in a sustainable, non-profit fashion for the best interests of the consumer and community rather than for shareholders.

Obviously, this means that any such 'helpful' groups need to be non-profit with a clear eye on paying those engaged in doing, rather than relying on the delaying of volunteer fatigue but we are all quite clear that this is a "best network of people", not some new quangos or businesses set up to meet private aspirations. The clear indications are that the will is there to deliver all of this for the communities who are involved in setting up their projects now. Wherever you may find yourself in the world.

The plan is to set up a fiber/fibre marketing social networking group to share best practice, lessons learnt and collateral which community networks can use to best effect, without having to re-invent the wheel and to make the most of what undoubtedly are always going to be tight budgets.

This is now an ongoing project which should be launched shortly.

Anyone who has any info/time/resources/etc they would like to contribute to the project, please contact me on ldotannisonatgmaildotcom and I will forward it to the others involved in setting up this social network which will, I have no doubt, bring together and help out many community and grassroots projects over the coming months.



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Rural broadband fiasco

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Read more! The front page article on my local paper, The Cumberland & Westmorland Herald, this week says far too much about the reality of rural broadband in the UK. Broadband? That'll be £45,000 then.

What this rural business is seeking is not what most businesses in the world today would even call broadband. The issues the article (and multiple blog posts here) raise about BT's first mile network beg a heap of questions about where BT is investing its money, e.g. with the recent notices about FTTC to specific areas of the country. Most of the places BT intends to go already have choices about their connectivity. The places that need decent connectivity are stuck on old-fashioned and limited plant that urgently needs upgrading or opening up so others with an interest can access street cabs and first mile copper and replace all of this Victorian plant with modern equivalents eg fibre.

What should anyone in a rural community when faced with this dilemma? What should companies such as The Phone Co-op be advising their customers when this problem arises? How should the media be reporting on these issues?

Firstly, any customer who believes their only choice is to deal with BT Open Reach to solve the problem created by BT (the digital chasm) needs to understand that there are other options. In particular, building your own community-owned network so this incumbent monopoly issue is resolved once and for all for our generation and the next generations.

You do not need to physically construct the network yourself, but it will substantially reduce your costs if you do at least part of it yourself, as has been proven in Sweden, Netherlands and elsewhere. There are companies who can design, build, operate and maintain your network on behalf of your community so the learning curve required by a community does not need to be as steep. It will however mean the network asset belongs to YOU and is open so that any provider can bring you a choice of services over that network. This is key to sustainability and future-proofing.

Every community facing these problems should seek expert advice and luckily this is now available through this blog, and the Fibrevolution forum. We are also creating a set of resources and guides based on real-world practical experience to assist communities. As ever, all of these resources are being created without any assistance from the UK government who have shown an abject failure to understand the importance of community-owned rural FTTH projects and sadly, seem likely to continue to do so in 2010.

If your community has any questions about rural broadband, please do not hesitate to get in touch. We have been helping communities for a decade with broadband issues, and I was the first person in the country to hold a rural broadband event. I and many others in our "fibre gang" are happy to help real people get connected to true broadband.

What should companies such as the Phone Co-op do? Become far more aware of the activity that is now in full swing within rural communities. Start to seek alternatives to the olde schoole thinking of dealing with BT. Broadband does not equal BT. Offer customers links to resources and help on rural broadband.

The Regional Development Agencies need to take a lead in gathering together all those interested in helping communities out, and presenting this information to help rebuild rural areas. There will never be a single organisation capable of offering all the advice required to rural communities (and I say that advisedly) so find all those suppliers, consultants, technicians, and community groups able to help and put them in touch with those in need in your region.

What should the media do? Stop taking the information from a limited number of resources and press releases. Start finding out about how others have solved broadband issues such as these and report accurately on the problems and solutions. Take responsibility for co-ordinating regional efforts by publishing broadband supplements that show the full picture. Highlight the affordable and future-proofed solutions to this problem so people understand the solutions are in their own hands. Do not mention BET as a solution - it never will be. It cannot ever be construed as accurate reporting if BET is mentioned in the same sentence, paragraph or article about Next generation access or FTTH without the word 'NOT' in close proximity!!

And MPs - be warned. This is going to become an election issue so get yourself up to date fast on the latest technologies and FTTH. FTTC is NOT the solution, however many press releases Virgin and BT put out about it. Attend the FTTH Council conference in Lisbon next month, read the news from other countries about FTTH, and protect your constituencies from substandard offerings, now and in the future.







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Lessons from Louisiana

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Read more! After three weeks of subzero temperatures, Louisiana makes a very welcome change. I'd forgotten what sun felt like! Am sitting here attached to a 25Mbps symmetrical pipe, boostable to anywhere up to a gig - direct into the vein! I am currently in a data exchange which has a carbon toeprint rather than a footprint, is providing cloud computing services over the community fibre network to local businesses, and is housed within a business centre which survived, only just, Katrina ....

The best bit? It was conceived and is run by an amazing, dynamic lady, the building is owned by another female visionary, it includes a Women's Business Centre, the whole focus is on economic development, and the replicability of this set-up would be simple. Even in the UK. The only reason we can't do it is that the places where this set up is most needed are those places where there is currently insufficient infrastructure to do so.

What should we be doing? Well, firstly, the sooner we resolve the cost issues of backhaul in all areas of UK, rural and urban, the better. The UK Government should spend the first tranche of money from the rural Broadband pot putting in new open fibre, owned by the community networks it has constantly supported in words (DBR, Caio etc) if not in action. It should be a co-operative, not for profit venture, so that from now far into the future, every single person, business and community in the UK has a CHOICE about who to buy backhaul from, and the telcos and incumbents are finally faced with true competition. Yes, the government will say they cannot go directly in competition with the telcos, but there are ways round all of these arguments about anti-competition, as other nations have discovered (EU included). Think Amsterdam, Vasteras, Korea etc etc. Think about who wins and why that in itself makes it essential....

The telcos need to face up to the fact that competition is going to happen. I have in front of me the figures for building a middle mile network in the UK as a co-operative venture, and these figures have been created by a group of fibre legends, and are based on sound and known principles and costs. It isn't actually as expensive as I had thought it would be, and there are undoubtedly investors out there who want to take BT et al on at their own game and take Britain into the 21st century and beyond.

This would level the playing field and bring the data transit costs down to their real value, (cost plus) level, rather than over-inflated corporate greed-need levels. It would boost usage and access to the core network in a way that no other action can. It would immediately encourage innovation and therefore help to stimulate the economy, create new jobs, and support diversification, especially in rural areas. That co-operative needs to be started and run by members of the communities who are already up and running, and then as more communities create their own networks, they too can join the co-op. There should be no telco interest, or equipment supplier interest within that co-op, just consumers and communities, who by the very own end-user self-interest will ensure that the co-op is run for the benefit of all.

I suggest it may well, and should definitely, happen in the UK soon too. If anyone has some spare cash in the bank and wants to be involved, or you are a community network in desperate need of affordable backhaul, please do get in touch.

More from the USA soon - I now have 40+ pages of notes and my head is reeling with facts, figures, ideas and information from the amazing people who I have met and who have been generous and forthcoming in the extreme with their contributions to the discussions and answers to my seemingly never-ending stream of fibre questions. Many of these people are very well-known within our sphere and I am honoured to be invited and welcomed into their world. Thank you all. You know who you are!!



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Graduation from the school of hard NOCS

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Read more! Over the years, Utopia has suffered some ups and downs. Those who know even part of the history will know thie is somewhat of an understatement! I am sitting in the very comfortable lobby right now, having spent the day hearing the Utopia Today story from Todd Marriott and others in Utopia.
It is quite clear that Utopia has had to learn far too much the hard way - it is one of the known problems of being a pioneer. However, what we are seeing here today is a success story, that stands to become yet more so in future and is clearly an example for others to follow.

Whilst the Mobile Command Centre (photos to follow as soon as we get back to the hotel - personally, I'd rather stay here!!) may seem an over-exuberant way of promoting Utopia anywhere in the region, it serves a valid purpose too. Its very existence highlights the benefits of a distributed core network that can be run from anywhere, has multiple failsafes built-in, and is supremely redundant. The Mobile Command Centre is not just a posh camper van converted into meeting and sales rooms; it is a full NOC - you can run the whole network from this vehicle, wherever you choose to park it within the Utopia footprint. It is used 24/7 and therefore the marginal expense required to acquire and kit out such a vehicle can be justified many times over.

The Utopia story is about to take a leap forward as Todd explained to us. I can't go into too much detail but the 30+ pages of notes that I have and the fact my brain is on high speed spin cycle now should be an indication of the amazing things we have heard and discussed here today! The financial modelling of future projects is far more sophisticated than previously in Utopia's history, and there are indeed a deal of lessons learnt in this network that are now being strenuously applied. Not just within Utopia, but in the many other networks who are now benefiting from Utopia's survival of the school of hard NOCs. (Zero apology for the pun)

There are a large number of networks represented here today. Some are at the outset of their journey, whilst others are celebrating 10 years serving their communities. This commitment to providing connectivity to communities is something which governments, regulators and incumbents could learn phenomenal amounts from, if they just opened their ears (and wallets to pay for this invaluable experience).

The story that is clearly coming out of Utah at Geoff Daily's mini conference is that all those who keep saying wireless is the new black have not thought this through. OK, so this is a self-selected group of people who are bound to argue for fibre, but even so, the figures we are seeing today show that, for instance, to build ubiquitous wireless in one network would have required 1000 miles of fibre to support that network and the antenna sites. To FTTH the whole area required 1500 miles of fibre and then the wireless can be overlaid on that for minimum cost. Still think wireless should coem before FTTH?!

There is far more I could write here but I am going to write it in several parts. What I am hearing today merely reinforces much I personally have believed for more than a decade, but this trip to the US has brought me into contact with the hard evidence that sadly seems to be essential to get people to the point they need to be to understand why we need FTTH and we need it NOW - be they regulators, policy makers, investors, consumers, incumbents, RDAs etc.

And if you were sitting directly connected to a backhaul connection that until today you had only ever dreamed of being able to play on, and where the bottleneck throttling is caused by the 100MB ethernet, wouldn't you want to be doing more exciting things on that very fat pipe than writing your blog?!!!!

As far as the fat pipe goes, it is awesome! I knew it would be, and I wish somehow I could bottle this connectivity and bring it home. Oh yes, I can. It just won't be in a bottle, it'll be in a glass tube. For all those who say 2Mbps is fine, or who don't fancy delivering much more than that (50Mbps contended is not much more if all your neighbours are on iplayer when you are) I can absolutely stake my sanity on the fact that it is NOT. And there are those of us who are going to prove, by JFDI, how very wrong you are that 2Mbps is sufficient. Watch your backs!






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Govt consultation on NGA Fund & travel plans

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Read more! Berr have announced a consultation into the spend of the NGA Fund to be responded to by April 1st 2010.

Is there really likely to be market failure which will require public sector funding? And if so, where should the emphasis be on first spend of the money? In an attempt to find some answers, I am leaving tonight to go and join a group of community, rural Fibrevolutionaries from across the States in Utah for a mini conference.

I hope to discover first hand how the subsidies in the U.S. are throwing up potentially similar problems for rural NGA initiatives, and how the rural fibre difficulties have already been solved by some amazing community projects out there.

There are also plans to see first hand round a couple of fibre projects, including Utopia, which has, for me at least, been a project on the radar for a very long time. I am really looking forward to seeing round it and speaking to people who enjoy first rate NGA connectivity today. I will also be talking to some of the foremost experts who are watching with interest how FTTH develops in the UK, and who, it seems, may have some answers to the questions people like me have about how we JFDI anyway, with or without government intervention.

I hope that I will be able to report back during my trip, so watch this space. I will be happy to talk to anyone interested about what I have learned on my return - the usual exorbitant speaker fees apply!


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UK open FTTH is a no-brainer

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Read more! Of course, when all of us grassroots people say it, over and over again, it gets no media coverage, but now an OECD report by James Enck has been published proving our point, so you never know - someone in government may listen. Don't hold your breath though.....

No, honestly, don't! The arguments are logical, sensible, economically sound, and include social capital gains... they have no chance of being accepted ;o)

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US broadband stimulus grants announced

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Read more! Today, the US Federal Govt began to announce the winners of the stimulus grants. "It's in America, not here, it's not relevant." I was told this today and nearly choked on my Red Bush tea. Let's start the panto season right here...oh yes, it is....

Whilst, on a geographic scale, the US projects may seem somewhat out of our league, as is the pot of gold, the problems faced are similar. Huge swathes of both rural and urban America who have little or nothing from their local 'incumbent' in the way of next generation access, or in some cases, first generation broadband. Incumbents and telcos dragging their heels in taking the investment plunge. Even though it is easy to see where the money will come from overall, it might not land in their coffers. Reluctance to do *anything* for the good of a wider community than their Board or shareholders. Sound familiar?

US communities are being given really amazing opportunities to put together astounding projects that will be ahead of the UK in climbing the learning 'mountain' of NGA - both middle and first mile. Not only that but there are lessons to be learnt by the UK in the process used to share out public monies.

For me, though the story that will probably prove most interesting, and may only ever be weeded out with difficulty over time, is how those communities who get overlooked (much like with our own National Lottery funding) resolve the problems for their communities. The disappointment will no doubt be tangible within communities who are banking on getting NGA soon. There may be a silver lining though....I'd love to lay a bet that although they will struggle to achieve what is required on several broken shoestrings, the lessons learnt by such communities will be 100 times more valuable to society than those who get the handouts. As long as they are heard.

I suspect it is those communities who will be the ones that many UK rural communities will need to look to for solutions. Because let's face it, £175M max each year is not going to solve the problems in rural Britain before those communities in the US who have missed out this time will have sought solutions. I don't see rural America sitting on its heels and not finding routes to deploy FTTH etc, with or without a State handout.

Any US community who misses out on the Broadband Stimulus grants, please get in touch. The rest will be written about, promoted, lauded etc and it will be far easier to track their progress. But those who have to be ingenious may well find better routes to the local market, more sustainable solutions, and benefit from those who dive in and make the inevitable mistakes. Save us re-inventing the wheel, if you can, please!! And good luck to all.


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UK broadband fails the economy

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Read more! Access to second class broadband can only damage the economy. If almost half of our online business, which as we all know is contributing more and more to the economy as other industry eg steel, manufacturing etc diminishes, is in rural areas, it is time to sort out our priorities for the economy. And for broadband.

According to a recent NFEA (National Federation of Enterprise Agencies) poll, 44 per cent of online businesses are based in rural areas.

The three areas where we need expansion, competitive businesses, innovation and regeneration - rural, SME and digital - we are failing. Badly. You can talk about putting in 2Mbps, creating funds, taxing landlines, developing new quangos etc all you like, but the time for action instead of talking is NOW.

We cannot afford to lose digital businesses, or stymie innovation further. The rural economy, and therefore the WHOLE economy, is blatantly suffering whilst the Westminster suits discuss policy objectives for 2012-2017 they may not even be around to deliver.

Start digging. In rural areas. THAT is the only solution for 2010 and economic recovery.

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Verizon hits the 100Gbps mark in Europe

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Read more! Verizon has just increased its fibre backbone between Paris and Frankfurt to 100Gbps to cope with business demands in the future. This post would seem to tie in nicely with the earlier post about Ofcom etc considering what is required in the UK for BtB products - um, not *that* much, apparently!

Whilst Verizon are not actually offering the full 100Gbps at present, mainly because no enterprise is demanding it, it would seem by this action that they expect for that time to come sooner rather than later. Shouldn't we be adopting a similar approach in the UK?
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Bedtime reading - 3 Ofcom NGA reports

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Ofcom have recently released three new reports for you to peruse over the Xmas hols.

The first - Competitive Models in GPON by Analysys Mason - looks at the financials surrounding GPON tech in the UK. The reasoning behind the report is that

Ofcom wishes to understand whether a regulated GPON unbundling requirement would prove effective in supporting competition on GPON fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) networks, such as those being proposed by BT.

The second - GPON Market Review by Analysys Mason - looks at the current GPON market, and includes case studies from several countries.

The third - BtB Interfaces by CSMG - looks at the importance of (future) Business to Business requirements and hence impact on competition, possible bottlenecks, cost restrictions, and Open Reach's Equivalence Management Platform (EMP).

That should keep you busy for a day or so. All comments more than welcome to stimulate the debate.

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Paris aims for FTTH by the Olympics

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Read more! Unfortunately, Paris isn't hosting the Olympics, but there is a growing feeling in the UK, that insofar as telecoms are concerned across at the very least London, and definitely other areas of the country, the UK may well put on a very poor show compared to les French by the time the Olympics roll around.

Esme Vos reports on Muniwireless about the final resolution of the 'vertical build' problems in Paris that have been much in the news for the last year or two. And now the Mayor has stepped in with some neat plans to connect the poor. Oooh lala!

Meanwhile, the UK is nowhere close to even moving beyond thinking about 2Mbps asymmetrical as a potential universal service, let alone getting London or the UK 'up to speed' as Olympic host. For anyone heading off to the further flung parts of the country for individual sporting events, who will need unfettered access to the Net and speeds that are already considered normal elsewhere, our advice would be to bring your own satellite dish, or a well-loaded credit card.
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Build it and they will come

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Read more! As has been discovered with roads, the wider you make them to cope with existing traffic, the more traffic seems to use them. Now, the mobile operators are facing a similar problem which is also taxing the fixed network operators.

Having encouraged data usage over mobile phones, the mobile operators are now finding that the infrastructure is struggling to cope. The conundrum is that even if they expand their networks, data usage will continue to grow exponentially. However, they cannot keep charging for usage to keep pace with the returns required on this (continuing) investment because they have instituted 'all you can eat' data plans that consumers have become accustomed to.

The same is going to occur on fixed line networks, and is already occurring in countries, such as the UK, where the core infrastructure was never designed to handle the phenomenal (and growing) usage we are seeing.

So, what are the potential solutions to this quandary? AT&T are proposing "education of users" so that people limit the amount of data they use and take some responsibility for not overstretching the under-powered network teh telcos are providing. A second solution is to look at intelligent routing and caching - such as that apparently being discussed by BT and Google with Content Connect

There is a third option that seems to terrify operators, both mobile and fixed. Become a big, fat, dumb pipe. Forget all the other bells and whistles you are trying to flog, and just focus on one thing - providing a profitable fat pipe that does its job.

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Customer Owned Fibre

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Read more! Useful coverage at the Economist in this week's TQ section of how in Scandinavia and the USA customers for telecoms services are taking ownership of their individual First Mile fibres and sharing ownership of the next hop through a mutual ownership model.

Whether and to what extent this approach will work in the UK remains to be seen.

There are arguments that say the UK market is less attuned to the kind of mutual self-help ownership seen in rural America for example, and less alike the rural small scale mutual utilities seen in eg. Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland.

Ultimately the value in the fibre is in its use and the First Mile is for each customer's use, so it seems sensible to match that usage with ownership
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Broadband mapping - is this what UK needs?

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Read more! US broadband mapping may have just become easier with the launch of Broadband Scout.

There is huge potential here for someone in the UK with similar data records to create a true broadband map of Britain by county, postcode etc. Luckily, I don't, or I would probably have a go at this, as this is the information the UK is most lacking. It is currently tied up, double wrapped, guarded jealously by corporates who keep pulling "commercial sensitivity" nonsense on people like me who request it. Whilst some people are doing a great job of trying to get your average Joe to report in their broadband connectivity, it is not sufficiently conclusive to make mapping broadband demand possible.

Hopefully, this will now change when someone who isn't involved in the telco world gets on with this job, and makes it available. As a commercial product, that's fine, as long as communities get reasonably priced access to the results for our areas so we can build sensible, sustainable networks without quite so much guesswork or time wasted with the telco smoke and mirrors palaver we constantly face.

And then, Mr Telco, instead of having zero customers buying your stupidly over-priced and non-competitive bandwidth products in places desperate for a community network and true broadband, you can sell lots of these products at reduced but still highly profitable prices to places where you won't have to deal with us ornery, expensive end users and consumers because the community network will be doing that.

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The killer app is not an app...

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Read more! I know I'm not the first to say it, nor is this the first time I've said it. This is a post about video....

For many, the Internet as it stands is still inaccessible. Why? Because of literacy standards. Because it is still text based. Because it is still mainly in English, not Swahili or French or Spanish etc. Because it is 'scary'. Most people do not conduct their daily communications via text or through a keyboard - they speak, gesticulate, roll their eyes, react to body language and so on. Yet, this is still difficult for the average person to do using the current technology available to the masses.

Yes, we are moving towards more video content, but for the average person who is comfortable in their own skin but not on a keyboard, we still live in a world where much of our communication is not possible using a camera or a video link.

The infrastructure which would allow us to video conference etc is just not there in many parts of the world. Yes, there are mechanisms for doing so, and many manage to use video, albeit somewhat jerkily, to communicate with others, but it is not easy, nor even possible in some places. (Skype video here? Hmmm, not so it becomes a practice you would adopt as quickly as just going to a meeting and touching flesh with the people you need to talk to).

There are problems with coding and codecs. As memory etc has become more easily available, so coding has become looser, using the bits available, meeting tight deadlines etc instead of programming very tight, memory restricted, efficient code. Instead of being able to easily video conference with suitable quality of service, it has actually become harder as it uses more resources - eg bandwidth and processing power.

But where is the biggest problem? In the infrastructure that is required to carry full-motion, colour video so it feels as natural as a conversation. Whilst people keep rabbiting on about how 2Mbps is plenty, the reality is that it can't physically carry the necessary information to make video conferencing, or other forms of visual interaction, possible.

For instance, 2Mbps is not sufficient for telehealth, or education over video. By a very long chalk. It isn't sufficient for me to have a conversation 'as if I was there' with one of my kids when I am away on business. And whilst I may be able to communicate with them over text, email, on a voice chat, etc the lack of physical and visual signs that we all rely on as humans means that there are often important clues that we miss that make the interaction far less valuable than it could be. To both parties.

Video is the killer USE of the fat pipes. It will become the justification for them. Anyone who has failed to see this, and who still thinks that "content" means that stuff that Hollywood, the music industry, the BBC etc produce, is missing the way things are going. Interactivity will not mean pressing a button to vote for some trivial ex-celebrity. Interactivity will mean communicating with others, whether they are family, friends, peer groups, colleagues, the medical expert for our condition, a teacher, your MP, etc.

I remember standing next to Stephen Timms, watching a group of school children in Alston, competing with pupils from a school in the Midlands - and I say "with" because the teams were made up of pupils from both schools - to make a giant paper airplane over a video link. Up here in Cumbria, it is rare to see anyone who has different colour skin, or hear different accents in daily life, let alone talk to them, work as part of a team with them etc. The benefits and undoubtedly changed attitudes that resulted from that video session are numerous, and almost impossible to replicate without physically shipping kids around the UK. However, the kids couldn't continue their new 'friendships' from home, because the bandwidth required for 2 way video like this is just not available.

Imagine a physiotherapy session required by someone who is housebound due to their condition. At present, you need either a taxi or an ambulance to take you to hospital. That's an 80+ mile round trip for someone here. You then work with your physiotherapist to train your muscles back to life. This has to be done 'in person' because the physiotherapist needs to closely monitor your reactions to new exercises, to understand which muscles may require extra work, see your grimaces of pain and so on.

However, in many instances, this type of therapy could be conducted over a suitable video link. You could be in your home, not requiring the resources of an ambulance, taxi, nor to extend your carbon footprint to reach the hospital. Current and planned 'broadband' infrastructure is totally insufficient to make this possible without FTTH or fat pipes.

Let's go one step further. Project Natal gives some sense of how animation and great coding, including AI (artifical intelligence), could be used in future to deal with many issues, freeing up scarce human resources to carry out work which could not be carried out by an avatar.

Imagine that person who needs to be encouraged to carry out their physiotherapy every day, at home someone who is lonely, who is shy, who is agoraphobic, who needs to socialise but doesn't know anyone. Project Natal type programming could help to build confidence, listen to problems, bring people out of their shell, enable people to communicate about issues they struggle with. And so much more. Your imagination is the only limit on this one - get pondering!

But whilst you may want to do this on your XBox, there are times when this interactivity needs to be shared with a professional. Perhaps a GP who can see that the anti-depressant prescription is wrong for this person, or a psychologist, or a teacher or learning mentor with a difficult pupil. That requires a video link over the appropriate infrastructure to do that.

Once you start to think of all the possibilities for video, on a PEOPLE based level, not a monetary one, then you really begin to get how totally inadequate the current proposals for a USC, for 2Mbps, for asymmetric connectivity, and for Digital Britain really are.

Take away the shareholders, the policy tick boxes, the need to win seats, the use of public funds, and think purely about the PEOPLE. The consumers of this technology. Ask what people want, first. Then think about how we need to deliver it. Not in a piecemeal, this'll do for now fashion, but to reach an eNdGAme where the people who make up this nation are being best served. Think about your neighbour, the person sitting at the desk next to you, or on the Tube. Your family members, friends, the stranger in the doctor's surgery, the farmer down the road. Think about how being able to use video, invisibly, seamlessly, as part of their daily existence could change their life. What could it do for them, or for you? For your life, your business, your community, the nation?

Imagine health, education, security, communication, support, love, friendship, public policy directives, meetings, business deals, conferences, and everything else you can think of delivered on an "as if I was there" network.

And next time someone tells you that the USC of 2Mbps or any type of asymmetrical connection is fine for years to come, put them right.

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Herding cats into the NGA 'pen'

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Last night, sitting in the Conservative Technology Forum meeting in the House of Commons, it finally dawned on me what a task we really have in front of us. I thought dealing with my neighbours and community was difficult... (oof, you really don't want to know!)

But it's actually far worse!

I've been in the House before so although it was nice not to have jetlag this time from Dave Isenberg's WTF conference, it wasn't "much different' from walking through my own house. (Must replace the marble busts on the stairs though...[photo])

However, what is becoming ever more obvious is the need to 'corrale' people into a situation where they collaborate and co-operate. Working for just your business' shareholders, or for a particular party win, or for the gain of xyz community is no longer the way to play. Not even if you play a winning card that seems to meet all odds. Because, on the whole, to date, every single winning hand has been played with a poker face in an attempt to win for 'your side'.

We have to go beyond sides. Beyond loyalties. Beyond shareholder interest. Beyond personal agendas and party politics. It's bigger. It can sometimes start far smaller eg a community of 12 houses, but it needs to be about making it right, nationally beneficial. It is about the ENdGAme.

What we are trying to do is FAR, FAR bigger than those 'personal' interests, be they corporate, community or even seemingly national when played politically.

What we are trying to do is free something which will allow, possibly untethered to start with, an opportunity to access an unrivalled resource - human creativity and imagination. Innovation. Ingenuity. Inspiration. All of those will unleash far more social economic wealth than anything else we have on the books. That, in itself, unleashes our most recent god - Money - that can be counted and "relied upon", AHEM, as a judge of value.

I know, as much as anyone how scary that is, though, and what it could unleash if you allow people to do what they are capable of. Hell, I have twins. 2 to 1 is not a good algorithm in a power struggle over the washing up, for instance! But when it comes to making things happen....hmm, then you are talking. Harness the power for the common good...and we have a clean house, a village with a cycle powered recycling trailer, real endeavours planned and executed by real people. We are going places then.

I will be writing about my thoughts on this decade shortly. This is the first in which I have been here the entire time fighting the same problem (Please, please, let it be the last!). But I know, from those I was with last night in London, and to whom I am eternally grateful to not just those but many others for their continued presence in this world I live in, (and their freely given experience, support etc - you do know who you are TY) that there is an 'oldgen' who are helping the 'newgen' deliver the 'nextgen'.

I can't make you speak out in public, but I can hope you might. I have spoken to so many of you in private and know you are not mute!

End of the Noughties.....what do you feel is up and coming for the Teenies, and where do you see your contribution being to the next generation of telecoms?

Are we herding cats? Or is there hope in the telecoms industry? Please, share your views here and if you know someone who remembers the Thatcherite days of 84 and "no TV thru BT" or who has a vision for 2012 that comes from their experience, please, come and share here so we stop re-inventing the wheel.

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Is Don Tapscott right?

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Read more! I listened to him speak in Copenhagen at the FTTH Council event and have to admit I have more notes from that session than any other. This week he has taken on the music industry.

Whilst Murdoch and Google battle it out over news access by us mere mortals, the music industry has been applying undue pressure, particularly in the UK, in order to protect an outdated business model.

Don has decided to point out to the music industry several options available for their survival. I personally would not want anything to do with the billing engine responsible for ensuring each person was credited the appropriate amounts, but hey, jobs for the boys there in his suggestions!

What many people are endeavouring to achieve is to change the scarcity model into that of abundance. The problem is that the "protectionists" apparently didn't see this abundance lark coming. So, not having considered solutions prior to its arrival, they now feel threatened. Instead of embracing it, they are panicking like mad and endeavouring to hang on to the olde worlde models.

Won't work. It is that simple. And the telcos are in a similar kerfuffle.

If someone comes along, doesn't play the game, and instead of offering an 'up to', unlimited connection by the current definitions of unlimited etc, makes available a connection that is, "Really, all you can eat. No, honestly, it is, try and break it if you want, we want you using bits", what will we hear from the telcos? Certainly, no more of Benoit's hunting the mythical bandwidth hog, because our all-new 'use it or lose it' telco will be celebrating having found the people who really USE their network. It should be in transporting bits that telcos are making money, not in throttling and restricting the movement of bits.

Several years ago at a conference, I had a chat with Steve Kennedy (previously of Thus) over lunch about data transport costs approaching zero. That is even more the case now. If you have built your network on an assumption that by moving bits around, you stand to make ever more money as the costs of doing so approach zero, then what you want is people USING your network. You want them sharing videos, video conferencing, using VoIP, uploading, downloading, you name it.

You need to make it easy for those users. Not hassle them as the top 5% bandwidth hogs. Don't frighten them into not downloading a film or music track in case it might prove illegal with threats that their kids will suddenly be cut off in the middle of career-affecting school work.

Let everyone have access to what they want. Solve the billing engine problems by collaborating across sectors eg news, music, video etc and charge a flat rate that is supported by similar reductions in access costs because those running the access networks will see their usage go through the roof.

Stop trying to be all things to all men. Focus on what you are good at, and do it well. Make your money from a penny (or a fraction of a penny_ made for each of millions of transactions, instead of trying to find the single million penny/pound deal. Make a little from lots and lots and lots of people doing things. Because by making everything abundant, you will be far better off than now.








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Youngsters get it

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Image via Wikipedia

Debatewise is a fantastic project and for all of those involved in nextgen, help support our very own nextgen of kids from around the world who on 9th December will be doing something memorable with technology - discussing what can be done about climate change on Google Wave.

Thanks to Dave Crane for bringing this one to our attention, it really is awe inspiring. The Twitter tag is #GYP and we ask everyone to show support for these people around the world.

Updates are that we've got more than 1,000 young people from over 130 different countries/territories signed up to take part in the debates. We're now busily getting them on to Wave, getting them used to Wave and adding robots and gadgets that will improve the experience for them.

We're also trying to get messages of support from climate change experts, politicians or celebs - a sentence or two of encouragement will inspire these young people greatly so if anyone knows anyone who might like to contribute please let me know.

The Independent will cover the debates in full and we're working on getting other coverage too. The country coordinators we've recruited - of whom there are 100 - will be asked to see if they can get any local exposure and will be provided with help doing so. Some of these guys are brilliant and we've been discussed in the Phnom Phen Post, the Cyprus Mail and on TV in Bhutan. I love the internet.

We've got some brilliant people involved. The Cambodian team are comprised of people who were picking food off rubbish dumps until recently. And the Bhutan team decided the best way to deal with their poor internet connection was to hire a hall and get their ISP to sponsor the event.

There is lots more to tell and I'll happily do so to anyone interested. Any offers of help or ideas for collaboration are very welcome too.

Dave

I have Dave's email address if anyone wants to offer support or contact him directly.

THIS is what freedom of access, technology is about, and NGA will enable. JFDI and let's stop worrying about how much money the music industry is losing through its own short-sightedness and lack of imagination.

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The Digital Economy Shill, sorry, Bill

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Read more! Share it.....and with all thanks to James Enck (blog down there on the right in the FTTH blog roll - follow him) Read more!